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Yet where the Japanese had been seeing irresponsible budgets, ''over-loans," and tremendous domestic needs, the
Economist
saw expansion of demand, high productivity, comparatively serene labor relations, and a very high rate of savings. Thus began the praise, domestic and foreign, of the postwar Japanese economyand the search for the cause of the "miracle."
First, some details on the miracle itself. Table 1 presents indices of industrial production for the entire period of this study, 1925 to 1975, with 1975 as 100. It reveals several interesting things. The miracle was actually only beginning in 1962, when production was just a third of what it would be by 1975. Fully half of Japan's amazing economic strength was to be manifested after 1966. The table also shows clearly the "recessions" of 1954, 1965, and 1974 that spurred the government to new and even more creative economic initiatives; and it demonstrates the ability of the Japanese economy to come back even more strongly from these periods of adversity. Intersectoral shifts are also recorded: the decline of mining as coal gave way to oil and the move-
Page 4
TABLE 1
Indices of Japanese Mining and Manufacturing Production, 19261978
(1975 = 100)
Manufacturing industries
Year
All industry
Public utilities
Mining and manu- facturing
Mining
All manu- facturing
Iron and steel
Non- ferrous metals
Metal finished goods
Ma- chinery
Ceramics and cement
Chem- icals
Petro- leum
and coal products
Pulp and paper
Textiles
Wood and wood products
Food
1926
2.5
54.5
1.5
4.0
1.5
0.7
4.9
17.4
1927
2.8
59.7
1.7
4.1
1.7
0.8
5.3
18.8
1928
3.3
62.0
2.0
4.6
1.8
1.0
5.8
18.1
1929
3.6
63.2
2.2
4.6
2.2
1.0
6.4
18.9
1930
5.5
3.9
5.8
62.0
5.3
2.1
4.8
1.4
8.4
2.5
1.0
5.5
21.8
15.8
21.0
1931
5.0
4.0
5.2
58.8
4.7
1.8
4.4
1.1
8.5
2.6
1.1
5.3
23.0
15.2
19.0
1932
5.3
4.3
5.5
60.0
5.0
2.3
4.9
1.0
9.2
3.2
1.2
5.3
24.9
16.0
20.8
1933
6.4
4.9
6.7
68.6
6.1
3.1
5.7
1.4
10.3
3.7
1.4
5.8
28.6
18.8
22.3
1934
6.9
5.3
7.2
75.1
6.5
3.7
5.6
1.4
10.0
4.3
1.7
5.4
31.5
24.0
22.5
1935
7.3
6.0
7.6
81.0
6.9
4.4
6.7
1.4
11.6
5.2
1.8
5.9
33.4
26.4
22.5
1936
8.2
6.5
8.6
89.6
7.8
4.9
7.4
1.7
12.0
6.2
2.1
7.0
35.8
27.6
23.0
1937
9.6
7.1
10.0
97.5
9.2
5.7
8.7
2.3
12.7
7.1
2.5
8.0
40.8
27.9
25.2
1938
9.9
7.7
10.3
103.8
9.4
6.5
9.1
2.5
13.5
8.1
2.7
7.2
33.6
27.5
25.5
1939
10.9
8.1
11.4
108.8
10.5
7.2
10.3
3.1
14.2
8.6
3.2
8.3
33.6
32.2
26.1
1940
11.4
8.3
12.0
116.7
11.0
7.3
10.1
3.8
14.7
8.5
3.4
8.3
30.4
26.8
22.7
1941
11.8
9.1
12.4
117.1
11.3
7.5
9.6
4.4
13.1
8.5
4.0
8.5
24.6
33.5
19.7
1942
11.5
9.1
12.0
114.4
11.0
7.9
10.9
4.5
10.8
7.1
4.0
6.7
19.5
31.7
17.5
1943
11.7
9.2
12.1
115.5
11.1
8.9
13.3
5.0
9.6
6.1
4.0
5.7
12.7
28.0
14.5
1944
11.9
9.0
12.4
105.1
11.4
8.3
14.7
5.8
7.5
5.7
3.2
3.3
6.8
24.8
11.9
1945
5.2
5.4
5.3
55.5
4.8
2.9
5.5
2.5
2.9
2.3
0.9
1.6
2.6
14.8
7.9
1946
2.3
6.9
2.2
40.9
1.8
1.0
2.9
0.8
3.1
1.4
0.4
1.7
4.3
22.7
7.0
1947
2.9
7.8
2.7
54.0
2.3
1.3
4.0
0.9
3.8
1.9
0.5
2.4
5.8
29.9
6.3
1948
3.8
8.5
3.6
66.2
3.0
2.1
5.5
1.4
5.8
2.5
0.8
3.5
6.6
34.7
7.7
(table continued on next page)
Document
Page 5
(table continued from previous page)
Manufacturing industries
Year
All industry
Public utilities
Mining and manu- facturing
Mining
All manu- facturing
Iron and steel
Non- ferrous metals
Metal finished goods
Ma- chinery
Ceramics and cement
Chem- icals
Petro- leum
and coal products
Pulp and paper
Textiles
Wood and wood products
Food
1949
4.8
9.6
4.6
75.7
4.0
3.7
6.3
1.7
7.6
3.5
0.9
4.9
8.9
34.8
11.7
1950
5.9
10.3
5.7
80.0
5.1
5.1
7.3
1.8
9.0
4.7
1.7
6.7
12.6
36.5
13.1
1951
8.0
11.0
7.8
91.4
7.1
6.9
8.8
2.9
12.5
6.3
2.8
9.1
17.9
54.7
16.8
1952
8.6
11.9
8.4
94.4
7.7
7.1
9.3
3.0
13.0
6.9
3.6
10.4
20.3
58.2
17.2
1953
10.4
12.7
10.2
101.2
9.5
8.4
9.9
3.8
15.4
8.6
4.6
13.3
24.4
55.7
26.3
1954
11.2
13.5
11.1
97.5
10.4
8.8
11.5
4.3
17.5
9.8
5.4
14.5
26.5
54.6
28.5
1955
12.1
14.5
11.9
98.0
11.3
9.8
12.2
4.3
17.7
11.3
6.2
16.6
29.6
54.4
30.3
1956
14.9
16.7
14.6
108.3
13.9
12.0
14.7
6.2
21.5
13.6
8.0
19.2
35.2
60.8
32.0
1957
17.3
18.6
17.3
119.3
16.5
13.6
16.4
8.7
25.3
16.0
9.6
21.7
38.9
64.1
30.7
1958
17.4
19.7
17.3
115.7
16.6
12.8
16.0
15.6
9.3
23.9
16.0
10.0
21.3
34.8
61.8
35.6
1959
20.9
22.6
20.8
114.6
20.1
17.0
21.0
19.2
12.0
28.3
18.5
12.4
27.9
40.6
65.9
37.7
1960
26.0
26.5
25.9
125.2
25.3
22.4
27.8
24.4
16.5
25.7
22.3
15.8
33.6
47.9
73.2
39.9
1961
31.0
30.8
31.0
134.0
30.4
28.3
33.3
28.8
21.4
41.5
25.5
19.0
40.5
51.7
77.5
43.1
1962
33.5
32.9
33.6
137.0
32.9
28.3
32.5
30.3
24.0
45.3
29.2
21.4
43.4
54.5
79.3
46.6
1963
37.3
36.0
37.4
135.9
36.7
31.9
37.2
34.0
26.5
48.1
32.2
25.6
48.0
58.6
83.8
57.8
1964
43.2
40.6
43.3
137.1
42.6
39.7
45.6
39.6
32.3
55.5
36.6
30.3
54.5
64.8
88.9
62.7
1965
44.9
43.3
44.9
135.2
44.3
40.8
45.3
40.5
32.8
57.1
40.1
34.8
55.7
69.4
90.0
66.7
1966
50.7
47.6
50.8
143.1
50.2
47.2
51.0
48.0
38.1
62.2
45.3
40.0
62.5
76.4
95.4
73.1
1967
60.5
54.0
60.7
141.0
60.2
61.1
61.6
58.6
49.6
72.8
53.0
48.1
69.6
83.3
102.5
76.8
1968
69.7
59.6
70.1
142.1
69.6
68.4
74.3
71.0
61.5
81.4
62.6
56.9
76.9
88.4
107.0
78.7
1969
80.7
67.0
81.3
142.9
80.9
82.6
86.6
84.0
74.8
90.3
73.7
67.9
86.6
97.0
113.9
83.6
1970
91.8
75.9
92.5
139.2
92.2
94.2
93.8
96.9
87.7
101.0
86.8
79.8
98.2
105.2
118.7
89.9
1971
94.3
80.6
94.9
131.6
94.6
91.2
95.7
100.1
89.8
102.6
91.6
87.4
100.6
109.4
117.1
92.6
1972
101.1
87.4
101.8
121.9
101.6
98.7
108.4
111.0
87.3
109.5
97.2
91.5
106.7
110.8
120.7
97.8
1973
116.2
97.4
117.0
112.8
117.0
118.8
128.6
133.4
117.4
126.5
110.2
106.6
119.3
118.5
122.1
98.6
1974
111.7
97.3
112.3
105.8
112.4
116.9
112.6
123.0
116.2
117.0
109.9
104.4
113.7
106.1
109.1
97.5
1975
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1976
111.0
108.5
111.1
100.0
111.2
109.5
119.3
116.8
113.7
110.4
111.5
102.7
113.3
108.4
106.8
101.1
1977
115.6
113.7
115.7
103.1
115.7
108.1
125.0
124.9
121.3
115.2
117.2
104.7
115.3
106.7
104.4
104.6
1978
122.7
119.9
122.8
105.9
123.0
110.1
135.0
134.9
131.5
121.0
131.0
104.0
120.8
107.7
107.0
106.1
SOURCE
: Mainichi Shimbun Sha, ed.,
Showa
*
shi jiten
(Dictionary of Showa* History), Tokyo, 1980, p. 457.
Page 6
ment from textiles to machinery and finished metal products, a movement the Japanese call heavy and chemical industrialization (
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